POLICY BRIEF: Enabling a 2040 climate-neutral EU – A science-based 2040 EU climate target and how to reach it

This year, the European Union will add another fundamental brick in its climate architecture: a 2040 climate target. Setting a 2040 target is a legal obligation under the European Climate Law. But it also raises a crucial opportunity for the EU to go beyond its current level of ambition.

By aligning its 2040 ambition with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, the EU would:

• Send a strong signal for the continuation of the European Green Deal, in the next few years as well as beyond 2030. It would be a sign of continuity and investment predictability
  crucial for accelerating the EGD’s implementation, but also for ramping up competitiveness, shaping a clean industrial transformation, and building energy and socio-economic security
  – including by phasing out fossil fuels, rolling out renewables and energy savings measures.
• (Re)gain a leadership role in climate diplomacy. At COP29, the first major countries put their new NDCs on the table. To regain a leadership position, the EU needs to do the same:
  it must do its fair share to reach the 1.5°C objective by adopting its 2035 and 2040 climate targets in line with its historical responsibility and capacity to act.
• Avoid the costs of climate change and harness the gains of the transition. While delaying climate action will imply dramatic costs for society and the economy, as highlighted by the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and by the devastating climate impacts registered across Europe, acting timely and decisively will bring a wide range of benefits: following an ambitious decarbonisation pathway aligned with the 1.5°C
  temperature goal, the EU could gain at least €1 trillion already by 2030.

This policy options paper provides a brief overview of how the 2040 target should be set, taking into account Europe’s historical responsibility and capacity to act. It also hints at some urgent policy steps constituting enabling conditions for its achievement.